Tanzania: Energy Sector Evaluation

Developing countries face tremendous obstacles in developing and sustaining reliable sources of electrical power. Mathematica is designing and conducting an impact analysis of the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA)-Tanzania energy interventions. This program, funded by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), aims to improve living standards and reduce poverty in Tanzania by investing $206 million to improve energy-related infrastructure.

The interventions include three activities:

• The Zanzibar Cable Activity, which involves laying a new submarine cable to provide a more reliable source of electricity to Unguja Island
• The Malagrasi Hydropower and Kigoma Distribution Activity, which will replace diesel power generation with less expensive, cleaner hydropower and extend the distribution network
• The Distribution Systems Rehabilitation and Extension Activity, which encompasses both rehabilitation of existing distribution networks as well as construction of new networks

We are investigating whether these activities lead to improved health, economic, and educational outcomes at the household level as well as better financial outcomes at the business level. We are using household and enterprise survey data and a mix of experimental and quasi-experimental approaches for this evaluation.

This five-year project is being implemented in two stages. In stage one, we are identifying appropriate designs for each of the three interventions. The evaluation plans are being produced in collaboration with MCC and MCA-Tanzania staff as well as other key stakeholders. The second stage involves an impact evaluation. The current study design proposes a randomized lottery of subsidies or a regression discontinuity design for the hydropower and the distribution activities. We anticipate using a pre-post design to evaluate the cable activity. In addition to designing the study, the work includes developing the data collection instruments, overseeing data collection activities of a Tanzanian firm, and writing an impact evaluation report. 

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