When Do Regression-Adjusted Performance Measures Track Longer-Term Program Impacts? A Case Study for Job Corps

Performance management systems may improve service delivery and participant outcomes, but they do not necessarily provide information on a program's causal effects. This article develops a statistical model that describes the conditions under which regression adjustment improves the performance–impact correlation. Using extensive data from a rigorous evaluation of Job Corps, the study team found that, while regression adjustment changes Job Corps center performance measures, the adjusted performance measures are not correlated with impact estimates.