As the statutory definitions of child abuse and neglect in Arizona shifted, along with changes in policy and practice, the Department of Child Safety (DCS) observed changes in the volume and percentage of child neglect reports to its hotline. DCS contracted with Mathematica to conduct a study to give policymakers compelling data to inform decisions about the best ways to support and strengthen Arizona families through less intrusive engagement with community services.

For this study, Mathematica used information collected at the first hotline communication to understand the types of calls that are associated with the most risk of impending danger to the child, and conversely, those associated with child safety. To better understand the cases associated with outcomes related to a child’s risk of harm, we fit a series of statistical models to learn (a) which information available at intake is most associated with the need for a DCS safety response, (b) what the direction and strength of this association is, and (c) which combinations of case characteristics are commonly associated with these responses.

This report shares findings from the study and explores the features of hotline reports that do and do not merit a response from DCS, with a focus on providing evidence to inform Arizona’s procedures and policies on when a DCS report and investigation are necessary.