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Evaluation of GiveDirectly’s Cash-only and Cash-plus Programs in the Nakivale Refugee Settlement: Baseline Report
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Evaluation of GiveDirectly’s Cash-only and Cash-plus Programs in the Nakivale Refugee Settlement: Baseline Report

Published: Dec 15, 2025
Publisher: Mathematica
Global Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Surveys and Data Collection

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Authors

Margo Berends

Evan Borkum

Alice Sumbatala

Alvin Mugwe

Key Findings

  • Differences in baseline characteristics and outcomes between experimental groups were almost all small and statistically insignificant, with the few modest and marginally significant differences no more than one would expect by chance, which suggests that random assignment was successful.
  • The study sample is broadly similar to the wider Nakivale refugee population in key demographic characteristics, though there are some differences, especially regarding education-levels, reflecting the program’s specific eligibility criteria.
  • At baseline, about one-half of households in all three experimental groups owned or operated a non-agricultural business, and average monthly profits from these businesses were modest (about 83,000 to 114,000 UGX).
  • Average monthly household consumption expenditure was between about 539,000 and 561,000 UGX at baseline and was similar across the three experimental groups.
This baseline report describes findings from Mathematica’s baseline survey conducted for the randomized controlled trial (RCT) of GiveDirectly’s cash-only and cash-plus programs in Uganda’s Nakivale refugee settlement. We summarize the program design, study purpose, research questions, random assignment, baseline data collection methods, and baseline findings on household characteristics and outcomes prior to the program. Outcomes of interest include livelihoods, non-agricultural business activity, household consumption, wealth, living conditions, and coping strategies, with a particular focus on ownership of a non-agricultural business, business profits, and household consumption. We assess whether the experimental groups (cash-only, cash-plus, and control) were comparable before the program began, to confirm the success of random assignment and ensure that the study can attribute differences between the groups at endline to the intervention.

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