Evaluation of the Primary Care First Model: Third Annual Report

Evaluation of the Primary Care First Model: Third Annual Report

Published: May 08, 2025
Publisher: Mathematica

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Associated Project

Evaluation of the Primary Care First Model

Time frame: 2019-2028

Prepared for:

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation

Authors

Shannon Heitkamp

Jake Vogler

Natalie Porter

Margaret Coit

Nancy McCall

Key Findings

  • Primary Care First did not reduce acute hospitalization rates among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in its first two years, and it increased Medicare expenditures by 1 percent.
  • Practices that initially joined in 2021 have remained engaged in the model and reported a range of changes to their delivery of care even if Primary Care First was not their main motivating factor or funding source.
  • Nearly two-thirds of practices pursuing care management strategies reported that changes were funded in part or solely by payments from Primary Care First.
  • Attrition from the model has been high. In the model’s first three years, 27 percent of practices left, primarily because of concerns related to financial aspects of the model. Broader multi-payer participation and alignment with the model was also limited.
This is the third annual report of the evaluation of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Primary Care First Model (PCF). In 2021, the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation launched the PCF Model in 26 regions across the United States. PCF tests the impact of financial risk incentives and performance-based payments on advanced primary care practices, aiming to reduce acute hospitalizations, lower total Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) expenditures, and improve patient health outcomes. This third annual report covers the evaluation’s findings through the end of 2023.

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