Jordan Refugee Livelihoods Development Impact Bond Evaluation Framework

The IKEA Foundation has contracted with Mathematica to conduct an independent evaluation of the program funded by the DIB.. Mathematica’s evaluation seeks to both measure the metrics to determine payments to investors and generate broader learning about the program’s impacts on participants' economic and social wellbeing, to support future adaptation and scale-up. This evaluation framework report describes Mathematica’s proposed design for the evaluation.

Our rigorous mixed-methods evaluation comprises three components: (1) income-generating activity (IGA) validation, which will seek to estimate the percent of microenterprise grant recipients who are actively engaged in IGAs about 10 months after grants are disbursed; (2) an impact evaluation, which will assess the impacts of the program on household consumption and other outcomes related to social and economic wellbeing, using a matched design to compare the outcomes of first cohort participants 24 months after grant disbursements with those of matched third cohort participants shortly after program enrollment; and (3) a process evaluation, which will seek to summarize the programmatic context, explore participants’ experiences with and perceptions of the program, and identify facilitators and barriers to achieving the outcomes envisaged in the program logic.