The APEC II Study: Estimating and Validating Statistical Models for Generating State-Level Estimates of Improper Payments in the School Meal Programs (Summary)

The APEC II Study: Estimating and Validating Statistical Models for Generating State-Level Estimates of Improper Payments in the School Meal Programs (Summary)

Published: Nov 30, 2016
Publisher: Alexandria, VA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service
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Associated Project

Estimating Improper Payments for School Meal Programs: Access, Participation, Eligibility, and Certification II (APEC)

Time frame: 2011-2016

Prepared for:

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service

Clients
USDA
The objectives of this study were to (1) estimate the APEC II improper payment model by state, and (2) validate the APEC II improper payment model. The authors find substantial variation across states in predicted improper payment rates due to certification error in non-Community Eligibility Provision schools and meal-claiming error. In addition, the sampling error for these estimates exceeds relevant guidelines. The predicted state-level improper payment rates due to certification error are less variable, and the sampling error for these estimates is acceptable. Nonetheless, model-based estimates of state-level improper payment rates should be regarded as inexact, and users should interpret them with caution.

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