Evan Borkum
Principal Researcher
View Bio PageCase Study
Strengthening livelihoods for refugees and host communities in Jordan
Assessing the long-term impact of results-based financing on business growth and household economic wellbeing
Results-based financing can generate lasting economic gains when livelihood programs pair accountability with the right mix of grants, training, and participant support.
200%
benefit-to-cost ratio ($2 in benefits/$1 invested)
Client Need
Assess whether livelihood programs delivered sustained income and value at scale
Funders lacked evidence that micro-entrepreneurship programs supporting refugees and vulnerable host communities in Jordan could generate sustained business activity, improve household well-being, and justify continued investment. Without such evidence, they ran the risk of funding approaches that produced short-term gains but failed to deliver lasting economic stability.
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, Ferd, IKEA Foundation, and Novo Nordisk Foundation launched the Refugee Livelihoods Development Impact Bond (DIB) and enlisted Mathematica to assess whether linking funding to measurable outcomes could drive strong, durable results.
Our Approach
Combining rigorous evaluation with timely support for adaptive implementation
Mathematica provided independent verification of results and real-time evidence to support program improvement and funding decisions. The evaluation comprised a validation study of business activity, a matched comparison impact evaluation of household outcomes, and a process evaluation of implementation and participant experience.
Key Outcomes
Strong business outcomes and measurable gains in well-being
Results show the program was cost effective, delivering more than $2 in benefits per dollar invested and demonstrating the potential of results based financing to generate measurable returns. The program exceeded targets for business activity and generated sustained income for participants. Access to grants, more than training alone, was the primary driver of business success, with the strongest impacts among participants facing fewer barriers to growth:
- 98 percent of grantees had an active business about 10 months after receiving grants
- 76 percent remained active nearly two years later
These gains translated into improved household well-being:
- Annual household consumption increased by 10 percent (636 JOD)
- Grantees saw an increase of 15 percent (945 JOD)
- More spending for food, healthcare, and other essentials
Our takeaway
Results-based financing can support livelihood programs that generate sustained income, but design choices—how participants are selected, how grants are structured, and how training and support are delivered—are what matter for impact and scale.
Evidence from the DIB shows that (1) grant funding is a key driver of business success and (2) outcomes vary depending on participants’ ability to overcome barriers to growth. Partners used these findings during implementation to refine training, adjust grant processes, and strengthen participant support, which together improved program performance over time.
For funders and implementers, this suggests that prioritizing capital support, strengthening targeting or tailored assistance, and using performance-based structures to reinforce accountability and results can produce strong results.
Efficiency Meets Impact.
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