Randall Blair is a principal researcher at Mathematica with 15-plus years of experience leading theory-driven, mixed-methods evaluations of complex multi-actor systems across agriculture, energy, health, and education portfolios.
He specializes in systems change evaluation, theory of change development, and contribution analysis and has experience designing and managing monitoring, evaluation, and learning frameworks; facilitating structured learning; and synthesizing qualitative and quantitative evidence to support adaptive management and strategic decision making across Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
In recent work at Mathematica, Blair has served as a principal consultant supporting the Gates Foundation’s Global Growth & Opportunity Division to institutionalize impact accounting, including use of sector projections, decision-point frameworks, and performance dashboards. He has directed and led major theory-based evaluations and learning partnerships, including systems-oriented portfolio evaluations and mixed-methods studies for global funders (such as the Gates Foundation, Mastercard Foundation, and Millennium Challenge Corporation), with work spanning contribution analysis, complexity-aware theories of change, qualitative field research, and rigorous counterfactual designs when appropriate. Randall holds an M.P.A. in development studies from Princeton University and a B.A. in Spanish and foreign affairs from the University of Virginia.
Randall has published in the International Journal of Educational Development, Economic Development and Cultural Change, and Psychiatric Services as well as field-shaping edited volumes such as the Oxford Handbook of Program Design and Implementation Evaluation.
Quality Rating and Improvement Systems (QRIS) have become a key tool for states to assess, improve, and promote quality in their early care and education programs. A new theme issue of Early Childhood Research Quarterly, co-edited by Mathematica senior fellow Kimberly Boller and her colleagues, Steve Barnett at the National Institute for Early Education Research, and Stacie Goffin of Goffin Strategy Group, looks at QRIS's range of purposes and effectiveness as a change agent.
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